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Population Estimates

Tables - 2021

Population estimates sent to the TCU

Tables of estimates for July 1, 2021, updated and sent to the TCU after published in DOU:
PDF  ODS  XLS

Files updated on July 10, 2023:
- Due to the revoking of judicial decision that changed the population of the municipality of Japurá, AM.

Files updated on December 12, 2022:
- Due to the revoking of judicial decision that changed the estimate of the population of the municipality of Tapauá, AM.

Files updated on November 9, 2022:
- Due to complying with judicial decision that changed the estimate of the population of the municipality of Fonte Boa, AM.
- Due to the revoking of judicial decision that changed the estimate of the population of the municipality of Itacoatiara, AM.

Files updated on September 5, 2022:
- Due to complying with judicial decisions that changed the estimates of the population of the municipalities of Novo Airão-AM, Borba-AM, Manacapuru-AM, Pauini-AM and Ribeirão do Pinhal-PR.
- Due to the revoking of judicial decision that changed the estimate of the population of the municipality of Fonte Boa, AM.

Files updated on July 11, 2022:
- Due to complying with judicial decisions that changed the estimate of the population of the municipalities of Barcelos-AM and Planaltina-GO.
- Due to the revoking of judicial decisions that changed the population of the municipalities of Manaquiri-AM and Vera Cruz-BA.

Files updated on April 19, 2022:
- Due to complying with judicial decision that changes the estimate of the population of the municipality of Caapiranga, AM.

Files updated on March 23, 2022:
- Due to complying with judicial decision that changes the estimate of the population of the municipality of Santa Isabel do Rio Negro, AM.
 

Files updated on February 7, 2022:
- Due to complying with judicial decisions that change the estimates of the population of the municipalities of Barcelos-AM and Itamarati-AM.
 

Files updated on January 21, 2022:
-Due to complying with judicial decision that changes the estimates of the population of the municipalities of Alvarães-AM, Fonte Boa-AM, Humaitá-AM, Itacoatiara-AM, Itapiranga-AM, Japurá-AM, Jutaí-AM, Pauini-AM and Tapauá-AM.

Files updated on October 29, 2021:
- Due to complying with judicial decision that revokes judicial sentence that changed the estimate of the population of Jutaí-AM.

 

Population estimates published in DOU

Tables of population estimates for the Brazilian municipalities and Federation Units on July 1, 2021:
PDF  |  ODS  | XLS

 

Complying with article 102 of Law no. 8,443, of July 16, 1992, the IBGE published in the Official Gazette, on August 27, 2021, the population estimates for the Brazilian municipalities and Federation Units, based on the reference date of July 1, 2021. Complementary Law no. 143, of July 17, 2013, changed article 102 of Law no. 8,443, revoking paragraphs 1 and 2, which established the deadline of 20 days after the publication of the estimates in the Official Gazette to send complaints to the IBGE.


The IBGE adopts a review policy of the data disclosed by this statistical operation. Data review means any and all scheduled revision of numerical data due to new information, which was not accessible at the time of the first disclosure. For instance: late data that replaces a non-response; or data corrected by the informant himself; or a set of data that has undergone editing and imputation. For more detailed information about the published data review policy of the IBGE statistical operations, check the list of short-term, long-term and special surveys carried out by the Institute with their respective revision procedure on: https://biblioteca.ibge.gov.br/index.php/biblioteca-catalogo?view=detalhes&id=298009.

Concepts and methods - 2021

As informações a seguir descrevem os metadados estatísticos, que são o conjunto de conceitos, métodos e aspectos relacionados às estatísticas, e são informações necessárias para compreender as características e a qualidade das estatísticas e interpretá-las corretamente.

Informações Gerais

Objetivo
As projeções e estimativas populacionais têm fundamental importância para o cálculo de indicadores sociodemográficos nos períodos intercensitários, bem como alimentam as bases de informações de Ministérios e Secretarias Estaduais e Municipais da área social para a implementação de políticas públicas e posterior avaliação de seus respectivos programas. Além disso, em cumprimento ao dispositivo constitucional, as estimativas da população constituem o principal parâmetro para a distribuição, conduzida pelo Tribunal de Contas da União, das quotas partes relativas ao Fundo de Participação de Estados e Municípios.
Tipo de operação estatística
Projeções e estimativas populacionais
Tipo de dados
Projeções e estimativas populacionais
Periodicidade de divulgação
Anual

Metodologia

A metodologia adotada para estimar os contingentes populacionais dos municípios brasileiros baseia-se na relação da tendência de crescimento populacional do município, observada entre dois censos demográficos consecutivos, com a tendência de crescimento de uma área geográfica maior, as Unidades da Federação. O método adotado tem como princípio fundamental a subdivisão de uma área maior, em n áreas menores, de tal forma que seja assegurada ao final das estimativas das áreas menores a reprodução da estimativa, previamente conhecida, da área maior através da soma das estimativas das áreas menores. As populações das Unidades da Federação são obtidas, a cada ano, da última projeção populacional disponível. Além disso, as estimativas municipais incorporam, ano a ano, remanejamento da população resultado de alterações de limite territorial que ocorrem entre os municípios. Dessa forma, a comparação histórica das estimativas anuais deve ser feita com cautela.
Para maiores informações sobre a metodologia utilizada, consulte
https://biblioteca.ibge.gov.br/index.php/biblioteca-catalogo?view=detalhes&id=2101662
Técnica de coleta:
Não se aplica

Temas

Temas e subtemas
População, Características gerais da população
Principais variáveis
População total do Brasil, Unidades da Federação e Municípios
Palavras-chave
Estimativa populacional População municipal

Unidades de informação

Unidade de investigação
Pessoa
Unidade de análise
Pessoa
Unidade informante
Não se aplica.

Períodos de referência

Data - 01/07/2021

Disseminação

Formas de disseminação
Publicação Digital (online), Diário Oficial da União
Nível de desagregação geográfica
Município
Nível de divulgação
Brasil, Unidades da Federação e Municípios

Histórico

O IBGE publica anualmente as estimativas populacionais no Diário Oficial da União desde 1992, em cumprimento ao artigo 102 da Lei nº 8.443, de 16 de julho de 1992, para os fins previstos no inciso VI do artigo 1º da Lei nº 8.443.

Em 2013 foi publicada a Lei complementar nº 143, de 17 de julho de 2013, que altera o artigo 102 da lei nº 8443, estabelecendo que entidade competente do poder executivo federal (IBGE) fará publicar no Diário Oficial da União, até o dia 31 de agosto de cada ano, a relação das populações dos municípios, e até 31 de dezembro, a relação das populações dos Estados e do Distrito Federal.

Saiba mais

https://metadados.ibge.gov.br/consulta/estatisticos/operacoes-estatisticas/XF

Description

It provides estimates for the total population of the Brazilian Municipalities and Federation Units, based on July 1st of the current calendar year.

The IBGE releases the state and municipal population estimates since 1975. From 1992 onward, it is published in the Brazilian Official Gazette, according to the Article 102 of Law no. 8,443, of July 16, 1992, to meet Item VI of Article 1st of that law. In 2013, Complementary Law no. 143, of July 17, 2013, established that an authorized entity of the federal executive power will publish every year in the Brazilian Official Gazette the population of the Municipalities up to August 31 and the population of the States and Federal District up to December 31. It should be highlighted that the municipal populations are the most important input used by the Brazilian Court of Audit to distribute the States and Federal District Revenue Sharing Fund - FPE and the Municipal Revenue Sharing Fund - FPM.

The population estimates annually published are calculated based on the mathematical method developed in 1972 by João Lira Madeira and Celso Cardoso da Silva Simões, called AiBi. This method uses as basic input the populations obtained from the most recent Population Projections for Brazil and Federation Units, as well as the population growth of every Municipality in the last decade, outlined by their respective populations enumerated in the last two Population Censuses. Those enumerated populations, which are the basis for calculating the trend of population growth in the Municipalities, can be adjusted according to the population adjustments used in the Population Projections for Brazil and Federation Units.

In addition to the basic inputs above mentioned, the municipal population estimates incorporate every year updates of the political-administrative division of Brazil, which, on their turn, reflect the changes in the territorial boundaries of the Municipalities taken place after the last Population Census. Since the sum of the populations of the Municipalities results in the total population of the respective Federation Unit, likely differences between the total population of a Federation Unit obtained from the Population Estimates and that obtained from the Population Projections result from the update of the political-administrative division taken place after the base year of the projections (and, thus, not taken into account in the Population Projections of the Federation Units).

Important note

The IBGE does not produce population projections at the municipal geographic level. The Population Projections for Brazil and Federation Units are prospective, estimated by demographic methods, whose current horizon is up to 2060. The projected populations are released by sex and age group, allowing the analysis of the evolution of the size and age structure of the population. For more detailed information on this theme, see Population Projections.

Downloads

Technical Information

Methodological notes

News and Releases

IBGE releases population estimates of municipalities for 2021

The IBGE releases today the estimates for the resident population in the 5,570 Brazilian municipalities....

27/08/2021

Population estimated for Brazil reaches 213.3 million inhabitants in 2021

According to the Population Estimates released today (27) by the IBGE, the number of Brazilian inhabitants...

27/08/2021

IBGE launches interactive dashboard to help municipalities fight the pandemic

The IBGE launches today (21) the Covid-19 Dashboard by Municipality, with interactive maps that enable...

21/09/2020

IBGE releases population estimate of municipalities for 2020

The IBGE released today the estimates of the resident population for the 5,570 Brazilian municipalities,...

27/08/2020

IBGE estimates Brazilian population at 211.8 million inhabitants

According to the Population Estimates released today (27) by the IBGE for the 5,570 municipalities, Brazil...

27/08/2020

IBGE discloses municipal population estimates for 2019

The IBGE discloses today the estimates of the population living in the 5,570 Brazilian municipalities, taking...

28/08/2019

One out of three Brazilians lives in 48 municipalites with more than 500 thousand inhabitants

Nearly 66.5 million Brazilians (31.7%) live in the 48 municipalities with more than 500 thousand inhabitants...

28/08/2019

See more releases

Errata