Population Estimates

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Description

It provides estimates for the total population of the Brazilian Municipalities and Federation Units, based on July 1st of the current calendar year.

The IBGE releases the state and municipal population estimates since 1975. From 1992 onward, it is published in the Brazilian Official Gazette, according to the Article 102 of Law no. 8,443, of July 16, 1992, to meet Item VI of Article 1st of that law. In 2013, Complementary Law no. 143, of July 17, 2013, established that an authorized entity of the federal executive power will publish every year in the Brazilian Official Gazette the population of the Municipalities up to August 31 and the population of the States and Federal District up to December 31. It should be highlighted that the municipal populations are the most important input used by the Brazilian Court of Audit to distribute the States and Federal District Revenue Sharing Fund - FPE and the Municipal Revenue Sharing Fund - FPM.

The population estimates annually published are calculated based on the mathematical method developed in 1972 by João Lira Madeira and Celso Cardoso da Silva Simões, called AiBi. This method uses as basic input the populations obtained from the most recent Population Projections for Brazil and Federation Units, as well as the population growth of every Municipality in the last decade, outlined by their respective populations enumerated in the last two Population Censuses. Those enumerated populations, which are the basis for calculating the trend of population growth in the Municipalities, can be adjusted according to the population adjustments used in the Population Projections for Brazil and Federation Units.

In addition to the basic inputs above mentioned, the municipal population estimates incorporate every year updates of the political-administrative division of Brazil, which, on their turn, reflect the changes in the territorial boundaries of the Municipalities taken place after the last Population Census. Since the sum of the populations of the Municipalities results in the total population of the respective Federation Unit, likely differences between the total population of a Federation Unit obtained from the Population Estimates and that obtained from the Population Projections result from the update of the political-administrative division taken place after the base year of the projections (and, thus, not taken into account in the Population Projections of the Federation Units).

Important note

The IBGE does not produce population projections at the municipal geographic level. The Population Projections for Brazil and Federation Units are prospective, estimated by demographic methods, whose current horizon is up to 2060. The projected populations are released by sex and age group, allowing the analysis of the evolution of the size and age structure of the population. For more detailed information on this theme, see Population Projections.