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It provides estimates for the total population of the Brazilian Municipalities and Federation Units, based on July 1st of the current calendar year.
The IBGE releases the state and municipal population estimates since 1975. From 1992 onward, it is published in the Brazilian Official Gazette, according to the Article 102 of Law no. 8,443, of July 16, 1992, to meet Item VI of Article 1st of that law. In 2013, Complementary Law no. 143, of July 17, 2013, established that an authorized entity of the federal executive power will publish every year in the Brazilian Official Gazette the population of the Municipalities up to August 31 and the population of the States and Federal District up to December 31. It should be highlighted that the municipal populations are the most important input used by the Brazilian Court of Audit to distribute the States and Federal District Revenue Sharing Fund - FPE and the Municipal Revenue Sharing Fund - FPM.
The population estimates annually published are calculated based on the mathematical method developed in 1972 by João Lira Madeira and Celso Cardoso da Silva Simões, called AiBi. This method uses as basic input the populations obtained from the most recent Population Projections for Brazil and Federation Units, as well as the population growth of every Municipality in the last decade, outlined by their respective populations enumerated in the last two Population Censuses. Those enumerated populations, which are the basis for calculating the trend of population growth in the Municipalities, can be adjusted according to the population adjustments used in the Population Projections for Brazil and Federation Units.
In addition to the basic inputs above mentioned, the municipal population estimates incorporate every year updates of the political-administrative division of Brazil, which, on their turn, reflect the changes in the territorial boundaries of the Municipalities taken place after the last Population Census. Since the sum of the populations of the Municipalities results in the total population of the respective Federation Unit, likely differences between the total population of a Federation Unit obtained from the Population Estimates and that obtained from the Population Projections result from the update of the political-administrative division taken place after the base year of the projections (and, thus, not taken into account in the Population Projections of the Federation Units).
The IBGE does not produce population projections at the municipal geographic level. The Population Projections for Brazil and Federation Units are prospective, estimated by demographic methods, whose current horizon is up to 2060. The projected populations are released by sex and age group, allowing the analysis of the evolution of the size and age structure of the population. For more detailed information on this theme, see Population Projections.
Tables - 2021
Population estimates published in DOU
Meeting a legal provision, Law no. 8443, of July 16, 1992, article 102, the IBGE published in the Official Gazette, on August 27, 2021, the population estimates for the Brazilian municipalities and Federation Units based on the reference date of July 1, 2021. Complementary Law no. 143, of July 17, 2013, changed article 102 of Law no. 8443, revoking paragraphs 1 and 2, which established the deadline of 20 days after the publication of the estimates in the Official Gazette to complain to the IBGE.
The IBGE adopts a review policy of the data disclosed by this statistical operation. Data review means any and all scheduled revision of numerical data due to new information, which was not accessible at the time of the first disclosure. For instance: late data that replaces a non-response; or data corrected by the informant himself; or a set of data that has undergone editing and imputation. For more detailed information about the published data review policy of the IBGE statistical operations, check the list of short-term, long-term and special surveys carried out by the Institute with their respective revision procedure on: https://biblioteca.ibge.gov.br/index.php/biblioteca-catalogo?view=detalhes&id=298009.
Concepts and methods - 2021
As informações a seguir descrevem os metadados estatísticos, que são o conjunto de conceitos, métodos e aspectos relacionados às estatísticas, e são informações necessárias para compreender as características e a qualidade das estatísticas e interpretá-las corretamente.
ObjetivoAs projeções e estimativas populacionais têm fundamental importância para o cálculo de indicadores sociodemográficos nos períodos intercensitários, bem como alimentam as bases de informações de Ministérios e Secretarias Estaduais e Municipais da área social para a implementação de políticas públicas e posterior avaliação de seus respectivos programas. Além disso, em cumprimento ao dispositivo constitucional, as estimativas da população constituem o principal parâmetro para a distribuição, conduzida pelo Tribunal de Contas da União, das quotas partes relativas ao Fundo de Participação de Estados e Municípios.
Tipo de operação estatísticaProjeções e estimativas populacionais
Tipo de dadosProjeções e estimativas populacionais
Periodicidade de divulgaçãoAnual
Para maiores informações sobre a metodologia utilizada, consulte
Técnica de coleta:Não se aplica
Temas e subtemasPopulação, Características gerais da população
Principais variáveisPopulação total do Brasil, Unidades da Federação e Municípios
Palavras-chaveEstimativa populacional População municipal
Unidades de informação
Unidade de investigaçãoPessoa
Unidade de análisePessoa
Unidade informanteNão se aplica.
Períodos de referência
Formas de disseminaçãoPublicação Digital (online), Diário Oficial da União
Nível de desagregação geográficaMunicípio
Nível de divulgaçãoBrasil, Unidades da Federação e Municípios
Em 2013 foi publicada a Lei complementar nº 143, de 17 de julho de 2013, que altera o artigo 102 da lei nº 8443, estabelecendo que entidade competente do poder executivo federal (IBGE) fará publicar no Diário Oficial da União, até o dia 31 de agosto de cada ano, a relação das populações dos municípios, e até 31 de dezembro, a relação das populações dos Estados e do Distrito Federal.
Doubts and Disputes - 2021
Doubts and disputes concerning municipal population estimates
The estimates of municipal populations published by the IBGE may raise doubts or disputes as to their calculation or compatibility with other municipal information.
Firstly, it is important to inform that the IBGE does not review municipal population estimates, except for judicial determinations or if there is any calculation error not previously identified.
The calculation methodology used to estimate municipal populations can be found at: https://www.ibge.gov.br/estatisticas/sociais/populacao/9103-estimativas-de-populacao.html?=&t=notas-tecnicas
Listed below are the questions most commonly reported to the IBGE regarding municipal population estimates and the clarifications for a better understanding.
a) Population decrease with consequent decrease of FPM coefficient
With reference to the Municipal Revenue Sharing Fund - FPM, the only and exclusive involvement of the IBGE is the referral of the results of the Population Estimates to the Brazilian Court of Audit - TCU. The IBGE does not interfere with decisions regarding the calculation of the Fund's quota distribution. It is worth mentioning that Complementary Law No. 165, of January 3, 2019, states that: As of January 1, 2019, the FPM distribution in 2018 remains the same for the Municipalities that present a reduction in their coefficients as a result of the annual IBGE estimate, until coefficients are updated based on the new Population Census.
b) Use of vital records (births and deaths) in municipal population estimates as an indication of vegetative growth
In 2018, the IBGE used information obtained from the Vital Statistics and the Live Birth Information System - SINASC of the Ministry of Health, on birth records as an input for developing the population projection of the Federation Units. This has been made possible by the improvement in the quality and coverage of records in the states in recent decades. Nevertheless, it was necessary to estimate different adjustment factors for each state to make up for possible underreporting. In the case of deaths, it is still necessary to use indirect demographic methodologies for data correction, also due to underreporting. However, in municipal population estimates, birth and death records are not used due to the different levels of underreporting, in many cases, not measurable ones.
We also emphasize that only birth and death data, analyzed together, cannot result in population estimates. A greater increase in the number of births than in that of deaths does not necessarily indicate a real population increase, since the population in a given area at a given point in time is the result of an initial population stock to which the balance between births and deaths occurred in the respective time interval, as well as the migratory balance observed in the same period. As administrative records are not available to directly measure the volume and flow of migratory movements in the municipalities, and migration surveys to the municipal level is restricted to demographic census or population counts, it is necessary to use mathematical and/or demographic methods to estimate the total population of the municipalities.
c) Use of administrative records (number of voters; school enrollment; single registration; the "bolsa família" (family grant); water and electricity connections; registration in taxpayer registries, etc.)
Regarding the claims related to increases in various administrative records of the municipality, it is worth saying that the IBGE does not use information from administrative records in the calculation of estimates of municipal populations. These records were not created for statistical use, but for control and management of public policies. Thus, in order to be used for statistical purposes, specifically as a reference to measure population evolution, it becomes necessary to: assess the quality of records through data editing and data consistency; proceed with the cleaning of the bases or with the necessary imputations; assess the degree of coverage of these records; and, finally, to harmonize the concepts used, aiming at using these data in specific statistical models to estimate small area populations. In this sense, the IBGE has been, on the one hand, making efforts in the search for partnerships, through Technical Cooperation Agreements with the agencies responsible for these registries, to jointly work out these databases, seeking to adapt them to the statistical use; and, on the other hand, improving the study of statistical and/or demographic methodologies that make use of this information to estimate populations of small areas.
Moreover, it is important to add that increases in the number of registrations in different municipal records are not necessarily correlated with an actual increase in the resident population. Improved coverage of records, as well as changes in the age structure of the population may lead to an increase in the number of the recorded events. For instance, an increase in the number of children entering school can increase the number of students enrolled. Improved coverage of the water connection registration system may increase the number of households registered in a database, but there has not been a population increase in the area. One hypothesis of the demographic effect on the constitution of new households are the children who, when are grown up, tend to form new families, which may lead to an increase in the number of households, with new connections of light and water, without, however, generating increase in population. All of these issues have been considered in the studies of population estimates through records, and they are still inconclusive as to the possibility of using records for the annual estimation of municipal populations (see for example: Barros, L. F.; Cavenaghi, S.; Amaral, S.; Administrative records and night satellite imagery: alternatives for making subnational population estimates? Available from http://www.alapop.org/Congreso2018/PDF/00108m.pdf. Acsess on 08/15/2019).
d) Margin of error in the estimates
The Demographic Components method used by the IBGE in the construction of the Population Projection and the mathematical method of growth trend used in the calculation of municipal population estimates are through construction, deterministic, and, therefore, do not allow the calculation of the margin of error of the population.
e) Existence of rural settlements, agribusiness, industrial and/or commercial growth, oil royalties, new residential allotments and occupied allotments, major infrastructure works, installation of factories, universities, prisons, among others, which lead to migratory movements and, consequently, to the increase in the municipality population after the 2010 Census
Only during the census operations does the IBGE survey populations from all Brazilian municipalities. In the intercensal period, the municipal populations are estimated by mathematical models, whose main inputs are the population growth trend outlined by the enumerated populations in the last two censuses. New ventures that may change the already observed growth trends of municipalities shall only be considered to calculate new trends in the next census or population count.
f) Conduction of a new enumeration operation in the municipality
For technical, logistical and operational reasons and also for methodological reasons, the Population Census should collect information at the same time, in all Brazilian municipalities. This way, it is ensured that the results of the survey of the population of these municipalities have a basis of comparison. Also, to make sure there is no double count, the reference date must be unique. In the case of the 2010 Census, the date was August 1, 2010.
g) Municipal population estimate time series analysis
The calculation formula of the Municipal Population Estimates is grounded on populations basic input obtained from the Population Projections for Brazil and the most recent Federation Units, as well as the population growth trend of each Municipality in the last decade, outlined by the respective populations, enumerated in the last two Population Census. In addition to the basic inputs mentioned, the municipal population estimates incorporate, each year, updates of the political and administrative divisions of the country, which are a reflex of the changes in the territorial borders of the municipalities occurred after the last population census. Thus, the time comparison of municipal estimates released by the IBGE should take into account the revision of the projection that was used as a basis of calculation and whether there was a change in the territorial border in the municipality, thus, ensuring that the comparison is made under the same basis of calculation and the same territorial base.
Should any doubts persist, please consult the IBGE customer services on: www.ibge.gov.br/atendimento.html
- Methodological notes - Updated on July 1, 2017
- Methodological notes - Updated on July 1, 2016
- Methodological notes - Updated on July 1, 2015
- Methodological notes - Updated on July 1, 2014
- Methodological notes - Updated on July 1, 2013
- Methodological notes - Updated on July 1, 2012
- Methodological notes - Updated on July 1, 2011
- Methodological notes - Updated on July 1, 2008
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