It provides estimates for the total population of the Brazilian Municipalities and Federation Units, based on July 1st of the current calendar year.
The IBGE releases the state and municipal population estimates since 1975. From 1992 onward, it is published in the Brazilian Official Gazette, according to the Article 102 of Law no. 8,443, of July 16, 1992, to meet Item VI of Article 1st of that law. In 2013, Complementary Law no. 143, of July 17, 2013, established that an authorized entity of the federal executive power will publish every year in the Brazilian Official Gazette the population of the Municipalities up to August 31 and the population of the States and Federal District up to December 31. It should be highlighted that the municipal populations are the most important input used by the Brazilian Court of Audit to distribute the States and Federal District Revenue Sharing Fund - FPE and the Municipal Revenue Sharing Fund - FPM.
The population estimates annually published are calculated based on the mathematical method developed in 1972 by João Lira Madeira and Celso Cardoso da Silva Simões, called AiBi. This method uses as basic input the populations obtained from the most recent Population Projections for Brazil and Federation Units, as well as the population growth of every Municipality in the last decade, outlined by their respective populations enumerated in the last two Population Censuses. Those enumerated populations, which are the basis for calculating the trend of population growth in the Municipalities, can be adjusted according to the population adjustments used in the Population Projections for Brazil and Federation Units.
In addition to the basic inputs above mentioned, the municipal population estimates incorporate every year updates of the political-administrative division of Brazil, which, on their turn, reflect the changes in the territorial boundaries of the Municipalities taken place after the last Population Census. Since the sum of the populations of the Municipalities results in the total population of the respective Federation Unit, likely differences between the total population of a Federation Unit obtained from the Population Estimates and that obtained from the Population Projections result from the update of the political-administrative division taken place after the base year of the projections (and, thus, not taken into account in the Population Projections of the Federation Units).
The IBGE does not produce population projections at the municipal geographic level. The Population Projections for Brazil and Federation Units are prospective, estimated by demographic methods, whose current horizon is up to 2060. The projected populations are released by sex and age group, allowing the analysis of the evolution of the size and age structure of the population. For more detailed information on this theme, see Population Projections.
Tables - 2020
Population estimates published in the Official Gazette
Following legal instrument, Law no. 8443, of July 16, 1992, article 102, the IBGE published in the Official Gazette, on August 27, 2020, the population estimates for the Brazilian municipalities and Federation Units, based on the reference date of July 1, 2020. Complementary Law no. 143, of July 17, 2013, changed article 102 of Law no. 8443, revoking the 1st and 2nd paragraphs, which established a deadline of 20 days after the publication of the estimates in the Official Gazette for complaints to the IBGE.
The IBGE adopts a review policy of the data disclosed by this statistical operation. Data review means any and all scheduled revision of numerical data due to new information, which was not accessible at the time of the first disclosure. For instance: late data that replaces a non-response; or data corrected by the informant himself; or a set of data that has undergone editing and imputation. For more detailed information about the published data review policy of the IBGE statistical operations, check the list of short-term, long-term and special surveys carried out by the Institute with their respective revision procedure on: https://biblioteca.ibge.gov.br/index.php/biblioteca-catalogo?view=detalhes&id=298009.
Concepts and methods - 2020
As informações a seguir descrevem os metadados estatísticos, que são o conjunto de conceitos, métodos e aspectos relacionados às estatísticas, e são informações necessárias para compreender as características e a qualidade das estatísticas e interpretá-las corretamente.
ObjetivoAs projeções e estimativas populacionais têm fundamental importância para o cálculo de indicadores sociodemográficos nos períodos intercensitários, bem como alimentam as bases de informações de Ministérios e Secretarias Estaduais e Municipais da área social para a implementação de políticas públicas e posterior avaliação de seus respectivos programas. Além disso, em cumprimento ao dispositivo constitucional, as estimativas da população constituem o principal parâmetro para a distribuição, conduzida pelo Tribunal de Contas da União, das quotas partes relativas ao Fundo de Participação de Estados e Municípios.
Tipo de operação estatísticaProjeções e estimativas populacionais
Tipo de dadosProjeções e estimativas populacionais
Periodicidade de divulgaçãoAnual
Para maiores informações sobre a metodologia utilizada, consulte
Técnica de coleta:Não se aplica
Temas e subtemasPopulação, Características gerais da população
Principais variáveisPopulação total do Brasil, Unidades da Federação e Municípios
Palavras-chaveEstimativa populacional População municipal
Unidades de informação
Unidade de investigaçãoPessoa
Unidade de análisePessoa
Unidade informanteNão se aplica.
Períodos de referência
Formas de disseminaçãoPublicação Digital (online), Diário Oficial da União
Nível de desagregação geográficaMunicípio
Nível de divulgaçãoBrasil, Unidades da Federação e Municípios
Em 2013 foi publicada a Lei complementar nº 143, de 17 de julho de 2013, que altera o artigo 102 da lei nº 8443, estabelecendo que entidade competente do poder executivo federal (IBGE) fará publicar no Diário Oficial da União, até o dia 31 de agosto de cada ano, a relação das populações dos municípios, e até 31 de dezembro, a relação das populações dos Estados e do Distrito Federal.
Publications - 2020
- Methodological notes - Updated on July 1, 2017
- Methodological notes - Updated on July 1, 2016
- Methodological notes - Updated on July 1, 2015
- Methodological notes - Updated on July 1, 2014
- Methodological notes - Updated on July 1, 2013
- Methodological notes - Updated on July 1, 2012
- Methodological notes - Updated on July 1, 2011
- Methodological notes - Updated on July 1, 2008
News and releases
Amendment of the release Population Estimates 2017
Published date: 31/08/2017
Description: The errors refer to a support graph in the release (graph 1), two paragraphs of the release which refer to the graph, and the population 2017 of the municipality of Poção de Pedras - MA, in a support table of the release.
Actions: Replacement of files (tables and release).
Rectification of Population Estimates 2016
Published date: 12/09/2016
Description: There was a processing error in the report issued on the Change Monitoring System of Territorial Boundaries - SALT and the territorial changes in three municipalities of the State of Bahia together with another three in Maranhão which were not properly incorporated to the population estimates of 2016: The municipalities were Piritiba (BA), Tapiramutá (BA), Morro do Chapéu (BA), Urbano Santos (MA), Barreirinhas (MA) and Santa Quitéria do Maranhão (MA).
Actions: Rectifications in the Official Gazette provided on September 09 of 2016. Population estimates in the Municipalities of Maranhão: Urbano Santos, Barreirinhas and Santa Quitéria do Maranhão amended and files replaced in the IBGE website on September 12 of 2016. Population estimates in the Municipalities of Bahia: Piritiba, Tapiramutá e Morro do Chapéu amended and files replaced in the IBGE website on September 13 of 2016, and update note included in the web page giving access to the files.