Population Projection

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This publication presents the results and the methodological aspects used in the preparation of the Population Prospejection of Brazil and of the Federation Units by IBGE.

The population estimates now released incorporate the demographic parameters based on the 2010 Population Census and the latest information from administrative records of births and deaths. These estimates are of fundamental importance for the calculation of socio-demographic indicators, as well as for feeding the information bases of Ministries and State Departments from a number of different areas for the implementation of public policies and the subsequent evaluation of their respective programs. Furthermore, municipal population estimates derive from population projections, which together constitute the main parameter for the distribution of the shares relative to the State and Municipal Revenue Sharing Fund, carried out by the Brazilian Court of Audit.

The following innovations stood out: correction of the age structure of the base population; population projections of the Federation Units through the method of demographic components, and population projections by five-year age groups up to 90 years or more of age.

Clarification on Population Projection Revisions:

Population Projections are based on information on the components of demographic dynamics (mortality, fertility and migration) investigated in the Population Censuses, Household Sample Surveys and derived from administrative records of births and deaths. Each revision of the Projection incorporates, at the time of its conduction, the latest information on these components, and/or methodological changes in the calculation of the projection, duly explained in the respective Methodologies. Therefore, it is recommended to use the most recent Population Projection review.