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Population Projection


Population Projections play a fundamental role in the calculation of socio-demographic indicators, supplying informed public policies and their respective follow-up monitoring. They can also serve as a basis for private sectors' planning strategies. Besides, the population projections are also used for the expansion of all household sample surveys carried out by the IBGE and the calculation of either the per capita national or regional Gross Domestic Product - GDP. They also result in municipal estimates of population which, altogether, constitute the main parameter of revenue distribution carried out by the Federal Court of Audit - TCU, in the Revenue Sharing Fund of the States and Federal District - FPE and in the Municipal Revenue Sharing Fund - FPM.

The calculation of the population projections for the total of the country, by sex and age, using the Methods of the Demographic Components, started in 1973. From 1975 on, the IBGE also became in charge of the disclosure of the population amounts of the Federation Units and and population estimates of the municipalities in the intercensal periods, using mathematical methods. In 2013, the Method of the Demographic Components for the projections by sex and age was implemented for the Federation Units, coupled with the results of the 2010 Population Census and the latest data on the components of population growth (mortality, fertility and migration).

The Population Projections of Brazil and Federation Units are made based on information on the demographic components from the population censuses, household sample surveys and administrative records of births and deaths investigated by the IBGE.

Given the changes in the population dynamics, the projections are continuously monitored and undergo regular revisions, both to add new information, when the changes in the hypotheses raised for the components are detected, and to update the calculation methodology. Those improvements are made clear in the respective methodological reports.