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Population Change in Brazil in the Beginning of the 21st Century | 2015


In 2013, IBGE disseminated for the first time the Population Projections for the Federation Units, by sex and age, based on the Population Components Method. This methodology implicitly incorporates the changes in the behavior of fertility, mortality and migration, thus improving the population projections, which are essential for planning and monitoring public policies in a number of governmental spheres.

Aiming at providing transparency to the production of demographic information by IBGE, this publication gathers eight articles written by IBGE´s technicians and researchers. The articles reflect on the data sources available to measure the components of the population growth, showing their advantages, disadvantages and limitations, hypotheses adopted on the behavior of each component considered in the population projections, as well as on the main aspects of the Brazilian demographic transition. The collection of articles ends with an analysis on the evolution of the age structure of the population in Brazil and in the Federation Units, highlighting its insertion in the demographic transition process and tackling both the specificities and the convergence of the  population dynamics in the national territory. The last article shows some examples on the articulation between the population changes that took place in Brazil and the political, economic and social dimensions, aiming at increasing the debate in the light of the decentralization of the social policies.

The analyses here presented were essential to carry out the population projections in Brazil and contributed not only to understand the challenges to be faced by Brazilian society in the next decades, but also to detect the opportunities that will arise as a result of the population changes.

All this information is also available in the CD-ROM enclosed in the publication.