Highlights

Update on economic surveys and on the System of National Accounts

11/06/2020

Technical note 01/2020

Monthly Survey of Services – PMS
Monthly Survey of Trade - PMC
MOnthly Survey of Industry – Physical Production – PIM-PF
System of National Accounts (SCN)

The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) has a tradition of producing short-term statistical information to monitor the behavior of the country's economic situation. The experience acquired over time has made it possible to incorporate improvements in the aspects of collection, methodology, analysis and dissemination of results, in line with the international recommendations for economic, industry, trade and services survey and the System of National Accounts (SCN).

The last update of the sample of enterprises and the weighting structure of the Monthly Survey of Trade - PMC and the Monthly Survey of Services - PMS took place in 2017, based on information from enterprises with 20 or more persons employed in the Annual Survey of Trade - PAC 2014 and the Annual Survey of Services - PAS 2014. The Monthly Survey of Industry - Physical Production - PIM-PF was updated in 2014, based on information from enterprises with 30 or more persons employed in the Annual Survey of Industry 2010. In the case of the System of National Accounts, the current reference year is 2010.

In the years following the updates, the main needs for new information resulting from changes in the economy and lag in the sample bases were identified. Therefore, in 2019, the work program aimed at updating, expanding coverage and detailing the sector of these surveys was initiated. The updating of the samples became urgent due to the events observed in the Brazilian economy since 2015, in particular, the emergence of new enterprises in the digital economy, such as transportation and food service enterprises, and in trade, wholesalers of food products. In the industrial segment, the main needs were the updating of the basket of products investigated, the weighting structure and the expansion of the regional coverage of the survey.

Likewise, in 2019, a mapping of the updating needs in the SCN was initiated, for the incorporation of new data sources, methodological changes and updating of structures.

This process foster greater integration between economic statistics and the updating of short-term surveys will allow for an improvement in the quarterly national accounts.

Update on short-term economic surveys

Due to the effects caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the planning of the update project for short-term surveys underwent a review in August 2020. There were changes in some goals and deadlines, especially those that depend on the approach of new informants in the survey, in addition to those work activities that require face-to-face events.

In the 2021-2022 period, the necessary work will be carried out to update the production of Short-Term Economic Surveys, in an integrating perspective with the System of National Accounts (see more on this issue below).

The main aim of the project is to guarantee the continued relevance of the indicators produced in the Monthly Survey of Trade (PMC); in the Monthly Survey of Services (PMS) and in the Monthly Survey of Industry - Physical Production (PIM-PF). Therefore, it is essential to carry out different stages of the statistical production process, among which the following stand out:

  • updating enterprise samples and weighting structures; and,
  • the calculation of the base year of reference, considering the most recent structural statistics.

 

The scope of the updates is to:

  • Conduct information collection in enterprises of the new samples throughout 2021;
  • Expand the scope of the PMC, to include enterprises classified as “Wholesale trade specialized in food products, beverages and tobacco”;
  • Expand the sectoral scope of the PMS dissemination activities;
  • Expand the regional scope of the PIM-PF, considering the states of Mato Grosso do Sul, Maranhão and Rio Grande do Norte, and update the industrial segments investigated in the Units for which there is already information available;
  • Perform the evolutionary development of calculation systems, web-collection and centralized survey;
  • Update the deflator matching used in the PMC and PMS surveys;
  • Chain the time series;
  • Update the modeling of the seasonal-adjustment factors of the time series;
  • Disseminate the new short-term indicators updated in the first half of 2022.

 

Short-term surveys focus on the following updates:

 

Survey: Monthly Survey of Industry - Physical Production - PIM-PF

  • Aim: To serve as an approximate measure of the short-term evolution of the industry's value added over time. For this purpose, indicators for the mining and quarrying and manufacturing industries are calculated for Brazil and selected Federation Units, considering only domestic producers of goods and services;
  • Type of statistical operation: Survey of enterprises;
  • Data type: Survey data by non-probabilistic sampling;
  • Disclosure frequency: Monthly.

 

Survey: Monthly Survey of Trade - PMC

  • Aim: To produce indicators that allow to monitor the short-term behavior of the main segments of retail trade and some selected wholesale segments. The objective of the sample design is to obtain estimates of the population totals referring to the variable gross revenue from resale, by Federation Units and by dissemination activity;
  • Type of statistical operation: Survey of enterprises;
  • Data type: Survey data by probabilistic sampling;
  • Disclosure frequency: Monthly.

 

Survey: Monthly Survey of Services - PMS

  • Aim: To produce indicators that allow to monitor the short-term behavior of the main segments of the services sector in Brazil. The objective of the sample design is to obtain estimates of the population totals referring to the variable gross revenue from services rendered, by Federation Units and by dissemination activity.
  • Type of statistical operation: Survey of enterprises;
  • Data type: Survey data by probabilistic sampling;
  • Disclosure frequency: Monthly.

System of National Accounts: updating and alignment with the short-term economic surveys

One of the rules adopted in the System of National Accounts (SCN) of all countries is the regular change of the reference year of the series. These changes, which imply revisions of the series, are carried out in periods previously determined in order to prevent the series from losing homogeneity. In the case of Brazil, this has normally happened in the years ended at zero, the last ones were 2000 and 2010. In addition, the results must also be recalculated for previous periods, generating a new time series.

Usually the routine of changing the reference year for national accounts incorporates new international recommendations seen in the manual of national accounts - System of National Accounts (SNA), the last one is from 2008 (adopted in the new 2010 series), new classifications of activities and/or products, new data sources, results of surveys carried out, aiming at the setting structural milestones such as, for example, the  Consumer Expenditure Survey or the Census of Agriculture, etc.

Following the logic of the schedule for changes in the reference year of the SCN of Brazil, the new series of national accounts was expected for 2020. However, due to the unique impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the world economy, it became impossible, considering the peculiarity of the year. Thus, the year for the series review was postponed until 2021.

One of the positive points of such change is the coincidence with the period of change in the reference year in the short-term economic surveys, since they constitute one of the main data sources of the System of Quarterly Accounts (SCT). This fact will provide a homogeneity between concepts, classifications and treatments, which is necessary and fundamental for the integration between national accounts and short-term economic surveys.

 

Directorate of Surveys

November 6, 2020



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