IBGE

Analysis of Results

I. Introduction

The 1990's was a decade characterized by several substantial changes in the Brazilian labor market. The economic recession faced between 1990/92, the commercial opening, adjustments in the private sector in order to reach more productivity, the economic stabilization plan and the privatization process affected employment, unemployment and income.The number of workers in manufacturing industry was significantly reduced; on the other hand, there was increase in the "service rendering" and trade sectors. The opposite way, there was decrease with reference to workers with a formal employment contract signed in the private sector and increment with reference to persons working without an employment contract and self-employed workers, as shown in the Monthly Employment Survey.

The advance of technology is indicated as the main reason for the disappearance of jobs in industry. New computer and communication technologies have led to the extinction of several employment categories. The services sector, which used to absorb the manpower originated from industry is also being exposed to new technologies and, for that reason, cannot generate a number of jobs big enough to stop the growth of unemployment. The argument presented is that, in order to be more competitive, organizations restructured their administrative arrangements and introduced new techniques for the rationalization of work, and those measures generated more productivity, profit and unemployment. Self-employment grew enormously in the 1990's, compared with figures in the previous decade. The quality of such work is another item considered by those who study this issue.

In order to find answers to the questions above, in April 1996, we administered a questionnaire in the six biggest metropolitan areas in the country, in order to investigate the mobility of individuals aged 20 years and over who formed the labor force in April 1991, their level of satisfaction in the function, the incorporation of new machines and equipment to the production process, besides the expectations of persons who found themselves at a non-active occupation status.

II.  Mobility of individuals among classes of economic activity

The results of the Monthly Employment Survey, for the group of six metropolitan areas surveyed, show that from April 1991 to April 1996 the economic activity rate fell by 1.3 percentage points, due to the fall of the employment rate from 57.7% to 56.2%. As the latter rate did not change significantly (from 3.5% to 3.6%, only), we tried to investigate the movement to and from economically active and non-economically active groups. The movement into the labor market (for one who is either working or searching for a job) was bigger than the movement out of it. Twenty-five percent of the persons who were economically active in April 1991 had joined the economically-active group in 1996, versus 17% who did the opposite. Entrance to the job market was bigger in the metropolitan areas of Salvador and Belo Horizonte, and the exit from it, in the metropolitan area of Recife (graphs 1 and 2). The exit of the labor force was most significant among women than men: 28.4% of the economically-active women became non-active, whereas only 8.7% of the men did (graph 4). Among non-economically active persons whose condition remained unchanged 79.4% were women and 60.3% were men (graph 5).

III. Mobility of individuals among employment categories

In the last few years there have been significant changes in work relationships. The results of this survey show that, in the group of six metropolitan areas surveyed, 17% of the persons employed in May 1991 had moved to the unemployed group by April 1996 (graph 3), being 14.2% as self-employed workers, 2.2% as employers and 0.5% as non-paid workers. The metropolitan areas of Salvador and Recife were the ones which presented the highest percentages, 19.7% and 18.5%, respectively. In these five years, the categories maintained 67.6% of workers with a formal contract, 62.9% of self-employed workers and 50.4% of workers without a formal contract. Among workers with a formal employment contract, the most important category of employed persons, 16.4% had started working without this benefit (graph 15), 13.3% as self-employed workers and 2.3% as employers. In terms of percentage, the most significant transfer was that of employers who had become self-employed workers, 25.8%. In the period analyzed, it is estimated that approximately 2 million workers with a formal contract, 853 thousand workers without a formal contract, 678 thousand self-employed workers and 157 thousand employers changed categories, considering the six biggest metropolitan areas surveyed in the country.

IV. Mobility of individuals among activity sectors

In the 1990's, we witnessed the increase of productivity to levels significantly higher than in the 1980's. The industrial sector led the process of automation and productive restructuring, the objective of which is to reduce production costs and increase international competitiveness, as previously mentioned, but there were also technological advances in all the other sectors. Even the services sector, which traditionally used to absorbed manpower from industry, incorporated a number of new technologies, such as computer science. In the case of Brazil, changes in the 19901s occurred in the sense of illegal (without a signed employment card) and informal work (self-employment), more often seen in the sectors of construction, trade and services.

The survey shows that, in a period of five years, 44.8% of the persons employed in trade moved to other sectors (graph 11). In the manufacturing industry, this figure was 40.8%. Salvador e Recife had the highest percentages, 54.5% and 51.1%, respectively (graph 6). In the regions which employed a biggest percentage of persons in this sector, transfers reached 37%. It is estimated that, in the metropolitan area of São Paulo, 484 thousand persons moved to other sectors. From this total, 60% went to services and 24% to trade. In Porto Alegre, the emigration estimate is 86 thousand persons from industry moving to other sectors, being 55% of this amount towards services.

Maybe due to the nature of their work and the expectations of persons who have a high income, to the difficulty in controlling prices and the lack of international competition, the services sector received the biggest percentage of persons: 27% of them came from trade and other activities; 23.4% from manufacturing industry and 19.9% from construction. For the same reason, services was the sector with the lowest transfer rate: only 19.8% of its workers in May 1991 changed sectors in April 1996 (graph 12).

V.  Position of individuals in the labor market according to their income

According to a pre-established classification of an individuals' status in the market in terms of income (highest paid, very well/well-paid, low/very low paid), indicators indicate mobility aspects in a period of 5 years.

In the group of six metropolitan areas surveyed, it was observed that 2% of the persons who considered themselves to be "very well" or "well" paid in may 1991, later reached a better status and considered themselves to be "highest paid" in their occupation in April 1996. This percentage was highest in the metropolitan areas of the Northeast Region, Recife and Salvador, 4% and smaller in the metropolitan areas of the Southeast Region, São Paulo, 1.8% and Rio de Janeiro, 1.5% (graph 25). Considering the persons who saw themselves as "low" or "very low paid" in May 1991, 19.5% declared to have improved their status by April 1996 (graph 26). The excess of supply in relation to the demand for manpower, the end of some occupations due to technological advances, privatization, and the control of expenses in the public sector affected income. In this respect, 73.1% of the persons who considered themselves "highest-paid" in May 1991 felt they were in worse conditions in April 1996 (graph 27). The same happened to 41.6% of the persons who saw themselves as "very-well" or "well" paid in May 1991 (graph 28).

VI. Social mobility

In order to provide elements for the analysis of mobility in the labor market, we investigated the level of schooling of the father and mother of persons aged 20 years and over covered by the survey in April 1996. Fifty four percent of those people were employed, 34.9% unemployed and 11.0% did not provide and answer, what can be seen as a consequence of the high turnover rates in the labor market in the last few years. Frequent changes have a strong influence when the memory of individuals is concerned in a long period of time, as it the case, of five years.

Even so, the result obtained fulfilled the expectations, that is, the change of employment rate is directly related to the level of schooling of the individuals' parents, whereas that of unemployment rate is inversely related.